Cotton leads the price cut "Storm" cotton prices fall good apparel companies

With the fall of agricultural product prices, macro-control has inhibited the irrational components of the upstream market. Important factors Since the beginning of November, the government has intensively dumped storage, and the series of price stabilization measures have been rapidly introduced, and agricultural product prices have finally fallen sharply under strong regulation. Since November 10, the price of cotton sugar that had been spotted in the previous period has drastically dipped. As the price of bulk commodities such as white sugar and cotton fell by more than 10%, the price of cotton was the largest and fell by 20%.

Price diversified agricultural products fell alternately

The price of cotton, which has skyrocketed since mid-September, suddenly changed in mid-November and turned around in a straight line. On November 26, China's cotton price index (328 cotton) was 26,681 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 4,621 yuan/ton or 14.76% compared with the historical high of 31,302 yuan/ton on November 11. On November 11th and 12th, the price of cotton ** continued to drop two consecutive times, after which the price of cotton ** dropped continuously. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton ** (1109 main contract) closing price of 26,365 yuan, compared with the highest price of 33,500 yuan on November 10, has fallen by 20%.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission's monitoring of the transaction prices of domestic bulk commodities, since November 12th, prices of domestic bulk commodities have fallen sharply. Among them, cotton fell the most.

At the same time, the price of sugar also quickly dipped. The price per ton fell by nearly RMB 1,000 in just two weeks. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange sugar ** main contract SR1109 closing price of 6535 yuan, compared with November 10th high has dropped 11.52%.

Local food prices drop

In Tianya Shi Cai Market in Chengdu, the vegetable price has decreased significantly compared to before, such as spinach from about 4 yuan/kg to 1.5 yuan/kg. A vegetable trader told reporters that vegetable prices had risen some time ago because local food was not on the market and the food on the market was all foreign. Nowadays local food is on the market and the price is naturally reduced.

The price of "Garlic," and "Ginger, Your Army," which had made a lot of noises before, all fell back. A miscellaneous shop owner said, “This year's garlic prices are a few cents to a dollar. This year’s drought in the first half of the year was followed by flooding in the second half of the year. The output was low. There were also bosses who had passed the goods, but they didn’t rise much. One month. Time has come down.” Another owner of a miscellaneous shop told reporters that when Jiang was the most expensive, they did not purchase because they were afraid to sell.

Corporate response cotton prices down good apparel companies

Yang Shuqiong, secretary general of the Sichuan Clothing Industry Association, told Huaxi Dushi Bao that the price of cotton that had been skyrocketing since mid-September had put pressure on many apparel manufacturers in Sichuan, and even dared not take orders. There are more than 400 member companies in the association, and nearly 70% of the member companies are greatly affected by this cotton price increase.

“If clothing companies play brand, there is a large profit margin and the impact is still relatively small. However, many clothing companies in Sichuan often do processing and group purchases. The increase in raw material prices leads to a 30% to 40% increase in the factory price of clothing, but in order to stabilize Sources, many companies will only ex-factory price rose by about 10% -15%. Often more and more to do more." Yang Shuqiong believes that the return of cotton prices is good news for apparel companies.

Expert point of view to resolve the conflict between supply and demand is the key

Li Fengfeng, R&D director of Bate**, said that the fall in the prices of agricultural products and the gradual suppression of the irrational components of the state's macro-control and the upstream upstream market are important factors.

In November, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio twice, which indicates that the central bank will tighten inflation expectations by controlling the scale of credit.

In addition, the government has adopted a series of measures to stabilize prices, which has affected the irrational atmosphere of commodity markets and the spot market. However, it should be noted that irrationality does not necessarily mean hot money speculation.

Li Panfeng also pointed out that although the regulation is effective immediately, it cannot fundamentally solve the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term, and it is more to push the demand forward. From the perspective of market outlook, the current balance between supply and demand of cotton reaches a balance, and it is difficult to surpass the previous price.