Current Textile Industry Operation Situation and Policy Measures
On May 31st, the China Textile Industry Federation held the second press conference on the economic operation of the textile industry in 2012. Sun Huaibin, director of the Ministry of Industry and director of the Information Center, disclosed the economic operation of China's textile industry from January to April, which was attended by major media reporters in Beijing. meeting.
Since 2012, under the more complex macroeconomic environment, the overall slowdown in the textile industry has been characterized by a decline in production growth, a fall in domestic sales growth, a large downward pressure on exports, a slowdown in investment growth, and a decline in corporate profits. Although the industry is currently faced with major difficulties, the adjustment of the industry structure continues to advance, and the transfer of regional investment to the central and western regions is further strengthened. The industry will accelerate the transformation and upgrading, actively strive for policy support, and strive to turn risks into opportunities.
I. Current characteristics of the textile industry (I) Production growth slowed down From January to April, the total number of industrial enterprises of 36,700 textile enterprises above designated size reached 1,677.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.11%, and the growth rate decreased by 17.43 from the same period of last year. Percentage points; the industrial sales value of 1.263879 trillion yuan was realized, an increase of 12.71% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 17.62 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among the major categories of products, the output of chemical fiber, cloth and clothing of enterprises above designated size increased by 13.09%, 12.83%, and 7.75% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate decreased by 2.23, 2.74, and 5.75 percentage points over the same period of last year; yarn production growth was higher than the previous year. The year-on-year increase was slightly higher, with a year-on-year increase of 15% from January to April, and an increase of 4.42 percentage points from the same period of last year.
(II) Domestic sales growth rate fell from January to April. The textile enterprises above designated size achieved domestic sales of 1,375.482 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.82%, and a decrease of 17.52 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among the retail sales of enterprises above the designated size (units), clothing The retail sales of shoes, hats, and needles increased by 15.6% year-on-year, which was 7.9 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. After deducting price factors, the actual growth rate of retail sales was only 11.6%, which was lower than the 11.2 percentage points in the same period of last year.
(III) From January to April when export pressure was heavy, China exported a total of US$71.03 billion worth of textiles and clothing, a year-on-year increase of 1.07%. Among them, textile exports totaled 30.733 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.15% year-on-year; apparel exports reached 40.27 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.77% year-on-year. The decline in the growth rate of exports is reflected in the lack of price growth and the negative growth in the number of exports. From January to April, the export price of textiles and apparel in China increased by 3.38% year-on-year, a decrease of 17.91 percentage points from the same period of last year; the export volume decreased by 2.23% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.97 percentage points from the same period of last year.
(IV) Investment growth slowed down From January to April, the total value of fixed assets of the textile industry totaled more than 5 million yuan was 184.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.95%, and the growth rate was 18.98 percentage points lower than the same period of last year; the number of new projects started was 4,310. , a year-on-year decrease of 5.61%. New investment in the central and western regions continued to maintain rapid growth. From January to April, investment in the central region increased by 24.42% year-on-year, accounting for 28.81% of the country's total, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the same period of last year; investment in the western region increased by 24.87% over the same period of last year. The national proportion of 7.18% was 0.40% higher than the same period of last year.
(V) The decline in corporate profits from January to March, cumulative total profit of textile enterprises above designated size was 53.704 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.77%, and the growth rate was lower than the same period of the previous year by 55.34 percentage points; sales margin was 4.5%, compared with the same period of last year The decrease was 0.66 percentage points; the enterprises above designated size suffered 19.67% of the loss, and the amount of losses increased by 120% year-on-year. .
Second, the main factors affecting the operation of the textile industry (A) the lack of market demand The macroeconomic down, the market demand is not strong, resulting in the current general lack of orders and product prices is difficult to upgrade. From January to March, the total volume of textiles and apparel imported from Europe, the United States, and Japan to the world fell by 6.55% year-on-year, of which the EU dropped by 8.37%. Due to the decrease in demand from developed countries, textiles from emerging economies such as China’s exports to Southeast Asian countries also followed. From January to April, China's exports of ASEAN textiles increased by 2.69% year-on-year, a decrease of 59.66 percentage points from the same period of last year, and textile exports to ASEAN rarely fell below the growth rate of apparel. On the domestic front, the slowdown in domestic economic growth has also led to a slowdown in the demand for domestic textile and apparel. From January to April, China’s clothing retail sales actually increased by 11.6% after deducting price factors.
(II) The spread of cotton at home and abroad continues to widen The spread of domestic and foreign cotton spreads has continued to increase and weakened the international competitiveness of the textile industry. Since September 2011, cotton prices in the international market have oscillated and dropped, and the spread with the domestic market has continued to widen. As of May 25, 2012, the domestic price of 328 cotton was 18,853 yuan per ton, the international market cotton price was 83.3 cents per pound, the 1% tariff and value added tax was 13,393 yuan per ton, and the international market price was cotton. Lower than the domestic market price 5460 yuan / ton.
(3) The pressure of international competition has increased the market demand. The domestic and overseas cotton price gaps have been widening. Some of China’s textile and apparel international market share has been transferred to other countries. According to the latest data, from January to March of this year, China’s textile and apparel market share in the United States and Japan were 35.58% and 72.03% respectively, which was a decrease of 4.55 and 2.92 percentage points from 2011, respectively, of which the market share of cotton products declined significantly. .
III. Trends in the textile industry in 2012 (I) The export situation is more severe From the perspective of textile and apparel demand, due to the uncertainty of European sovereign debt, the unemployment rate in the EU is high, consumption is lacking in fundamental motivation, and demand growth will be weak for a long time; US and Japan consumer markets Although there is a stabilization trend, there is still a lot of uncertainty, and it is difficult for external demand to form a strong pull on the industry growth. It is expected that in 2012, if the domestic and foreign cotton price gap does not shrink, China's textile and garment export situation will continue to be severe.
(2) Domestic demand continues to support the continuous improvement of the income level of urban and rural residents in China. Domestic demand consumption is undergoing continuous expansion and upgrading. This macro fundamental has not fundamentally changed. Adhering to the principle of expanding domestic demand is still the basic starting point of China’s macro-control policies this year. It is therefore expected that The retail sales of domestic clothing products can still achieve a nominal growth rate of 15% to 20% in nominal terms throughout the year. However, the macro fundamentals have slowed down. It is expected that the actual market growth level in 2012 will be lower than that of the previous year.
(3) The issue of cotton spreads highlights the large price difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices and is the primary factor affecting the operation of the industry in 2012. According to the calculation of historical data and the reflection of enterprises, the difference between cotton prices at home and abroad is controlled within 1,500 yuan per ton, and economic indicators of the textile industry are expected to reverse the downward trend. If the cotton price problem can be solved as soon as possible, despite the sluggish external demand and slowing domestic demand, the textile industry will still be able to rely on its own structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading to alleviate the lack of market demand.
Fourth, to ensure the stability of the textile industry policy recommendations and countermeasures To ensure that the textile industry continues to achieve smooth operation, it is recommended that the country promptly adjust and introduce relevant policies to optimize the external environment for the development of the textile industry, while the industry itself should also accelerate the transformation and upgrading, enhance international competition Efforts to further adapt to market changes.
(I) Measures to reduce the spread of cotton at home and abroad, and to speed up the reform of the cotton circulation system It is recommended that the State Reserve Bank should use financial subsidies when it puts stockpiles in reserve, limit prices to release reserves, stabilize domestic cotton prices, and reduce domestic and foreign cotton spreads. In the long run, the reform of the cotton circulation system will be deepened, the macro-control mechanism of cotton will be improved, and the import volume of cotton will be increased year by year until the dual management limits of cotton import quotas and sliding tariffs are eliminated, and the marketization of domestic and foreign cotton prices will be achieved, and market mechanisms will be adjusted. effect.
(II) Solve problems related to the taxation system and taxation rate and effectively resolve the long-term problems concerning the development of cotton, silk, silk, and other industries. The “high-learning and low-buckling†(VAT levy of 17% is deducted by 13%), and the textile industry is included in the “State Administration of Taxation on the part of The trial scope of the pilot scheme for the verification and deduction of input tax for agricultural products of agricultural products in agriculture was piloted; the pilot point for the conversion of business tax into value-added tax was expanded to the field of production and industry in the textile industry; and the export tax rebate rate for the textile industry was raised.
(3) Reducing the cost of SMEs' banks ** Paying attention to the difficulties of SMEs in a timely manner, improving the institutional mechanisms of SMEs, alleviating the problems faced by SMEs in textile industries, and reducing the risk of capital chain in textile enterprises. It is suggested that the competent authorities take measures to implement asymmetrical lowering of interest rate measures, properly lower the industry's interest rate, and focus on clearing and standardizing bank charges, and greatly reduce the excessively high costs of enterprises.
(IV) Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry in accordance with the requirements and deployment of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†and the Outline of the Textile Restructuring Program, build systems and mechanisms that are suitable for the further development of the textile industry, and strive to increase the added value of the industry and enhance the industry International Competitiveness. Encourage textile companies to implement technological transformation and technological innovation, set an example for the industry, and create an external environment conducive to further promoting the transformation and upgrading of textile enterprises.
Since 2012, under the more complex macroeconomic environment, the overall slowdown in the textile industry has been characterized by a decline in production growth, a fall in domestic sales growth, a large downward pressure on exports, a slowdown in investment growth, and a decline in corporate profits. Although the industry is currently faced with major difficulties, the adjustment of the industry structure continues to advance, and the transfer of regional investment to the central and western regions is further strengthened. The industry will accelerate the transformation and upgrading, actively strive for policy support, and strive to turn risks into opportunities.
I. Current characteristics of the textile industry (I) Production growth slowed down From January to April, the total number of industrial enterprises of 36,700 textile enterprises above designated size reached 1,677.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.11%, and the growth rate decreased by 17.43 from the same period of last year. Percentage points; the industrial sales value of 1.263879 trillion yuan was realized, an increase of 12.71% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 17.62 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among the major categories of products, the output of chemical fiber, cloth and clothing of enterprises above designated size increased by 13.09%, 12.83%, and 7.75% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate decreased by 2.23, 2.74, and 5.75 percentage points over the same period of last year; yarn production growth was higher than the previous year. The year-on-year increase was slightly higher, with a year-on-year increase of 15% from January to April, and an increase of 4.42 percentage points from the same period of last year.
(II) Domestic sales growth rate fell from January to April. The textile enterprises above designated size achieved domestic sales of 1,375.482 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.82%, and a decrease of 17.52 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among the retail sales of enterprises above the designated size (units), clothing The retail sales of shoes, hats, and needles increased by 15.6% year-on-year, which was 7.9 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. After deducting price factors, the actual growth rate of retail sales was only 11.6%, which was lower than the 11.2 percentage points in the same period of last year.
(III) From January to April when export pressure was heavy, China exported a total of US$71.03 billion worth of textiles and clothing, a year-on-year increase of 1.07%. Among them, textile exports totaled 30.733 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.15% year-on-year; apparel exports reached 40.27 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.77% year-on-year. The decline in the growth rate of exports is reflected in the lack of price growth and the negative growth in the number of exports. From January to April, the export price of textiles and apparel in China increased by 3.38% year-on-year, a decrease of 17.91 percentage points from the same period of last year; the export volume decreased by 2.23% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.97 percentage points from the same period of last year.
(IV) Investment growth slowed down From January to April, the total value of fixed assets of the textile industry totaled more than 5 million yuan was 184.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.95%, and the growth rate was 18.98 percentage points lower than the same period of last year; the number of new projects started was 4,310. , a year-on-year decrease of 5.61%. New investment in the central and western regions continued to maintain rapid growth. From January to April, investment in the central region increased by 24.42% year-on-year, accounting for 28.81% of the country's total, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the same period of last year; investment in the western region increased by 24.87% over the same period of last year. The national proportion of 7.18% was 0.40% higher than the same period of last year.
(V) The decline in corporate profits from January to March, cumulative total profit of textile enterprises above designated size was 53.704 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.77%, and the growth rate was lower than the same period of the previous year by 55.34 percentage points; sales margin was 4.5%, compared with the same period of last year The decrease was 0.66 percentage points; the enterprises above designated size suffered 19.67% of the loss, and the amount of losses increased by 120% year-on-year. .
Second, the main factors affecting the operation of the textile industry (A) the lack of market demand The macroeconomic down, the market demand is not strong, resulting in the current general lack of orders and product prices is difficult to upgrade. From January to March, the total volume of textiles and apparel imported from Europe, the United States, and Japan to the world fell by 6.55% year-on-year, of which the EU dropped by 8.37%. Due to the decrease in demand from developed countries, textiles from emerging economies such as China’s exports to Southeast Asian countries also followed. From January to April, China's exports of ASEAN textiles increased by 2.69% year-on-year, a decrease of 59.66 percentage points from the same period of last year, and textile exports to ASEAN rarely fell below the growth rate of apparel. On the domestic front, the slowdown in domestic economic growth has also led to a slowdown in the demand for domestic textile and apparel. From January to April, China’s clothing retail sales actually increased by 11.6% after deducting price factors.
(II) The spread of cotton at home and abroad continues to widen The spread of domestic and foreign cotton spreads has continued to increase and weakened the international competitiveness of the textile industry. Since September 2011, cotton prices in the international market have oscillated and dropped, and the spread with the domestic market has continued to widen. As of May 25, 2012, the domestic price of 328 cotton was 18,853 yuan per ton, the international market cotton price was 83.3 cents per pound, the 1% tariff and value added tax was 13,393 yuan per ton, and the international market price was cotton. Lower than the domestic market price 5460 yuan / ton.
(3) The pressure of international competition has increased the market demand. The domestic and overseas cotton price gaps have been widening. Some of China’s textile and apparel international market share has been transferred to other countries. According to the latest data, from January to March of this year, China’s textile and apparel market share in the United States and Japan were 35.58% and 72.03% respectively, which was a decrease of 4.55 and 2.92 percentage points from 2011, respectively, of which the market share of cotton products declined significantly. .
III. Trends in the textile industry in 2012 (I) The export situation is more severe From the perspective of textile and apparel demand, due to the uncertainty of European sovereign debt, the unemployment rate in the EU is high, consumption is lacking in fundamental motivation, and demand growth will be weak for a long time; US and Japan consumer markets Although there is a stabilization trend, there is still a lot of uncertainty, and it is difficult for external demand to form a strong pull on the industry growth. It is expected that in 2012, if the domestic and foreign cotton price gap does not shrink, China's textile and garment export situation will continue to be severe.
(2) Domestic demand continues to support the continuous improvement of the income level of urban and rural residents in China. Domestic demand consumption is undergoing continuous expansion and upgrading. This macro fundamental has not fundamentally changed. Adhering to the principle of expanding domestic demand is still the basic starting point of China’s macro-control policies this year. It is therefore expected that The retail sales of domestic clothing products can still achieve a nominal growth rate of 15% to 20% in nominal terms throughout the year. However, the macro fundamentals have slowed down. It is expected that the actual market growth level in 2012 will be lower than that of the previous year.
(3) The issue of cotton spreads highlights the large price difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices and is the primary factor affecting the operation of the industry in 2012. According to the calculation of historical data and the reflection of enterprises, the difference between cotton prices at home and abroad is controlled within 1,500 yuan per ton, and economic indicators of the textile industry are expected to reverse the downward trend. If the cotton price problem can be solved as soon as possible, despite the sluggish external demand and slowing domestic demand, the textile industry will still be able to rely on its own structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading to alleviate the lack of market demand.
Fourth, to ensure the stability of the textile industry policy recommendations and countermeasures To ensure that the textile industry continues to achieve smooth operation, it is recommended that the country promptly adjust and introduce relevant policies to optimize the external environment for the development of the textile industry, while the industry itself should also accelerate the transformation and upgrading, enhance international competition Efforts to further adapt to market changes.
(I) Measures to reduce the spread of cotton at home and abroad, and to speed up the reform of the cotton circulation system It is recommended that the State Reserve Bank should use financial subsidies when it puts stockpiles in reserve, limit prices to release reserves, stabilize domestic cotton prices, and reduce domestic and foreign cotton spreads. In the long run, the reform of the cotton circulation system will be deepened, the macro-control mechanism of cotton will be improved, and the import volume of cotton will be increased year by year until the dual management limits of cotton import quotas and sliding tariffs are eliminated, and the marketization of domestic and foreign cotton prices will be achieved, and market mechanisms will be adjusted. effect.
(II) Solve problems related to the taxation system and taxation rate and effectively resolve the long-term problems concerning the development of cotton, silk, silk, and other industries. The “high-learning and low-buckling†(VAT levy of 17% is deducted by 13%), and the textile industry is included in the “State Administration of Taxation on the part of The trial scope of the pilot scheme for the verification and deduction of input tax for agricultural products of agricultural products in agriculture was piloted; the pilot point for the conversion of business tax into value-added tax was expanded to the field of production and industry in the textile industry; and the export tax rebate rate for the textile industry was raised.
(3) Reducing the cost of SMEs' banks ** Paying attention to the difficulties of SMEs in a timely manner, improving the institutional mechanisms of SMEs, alleviating the problems faced by SMEs in textile industries, and reducing the risk of capital chain in textile enterprises. It is suggested that the competent authorities take measures to implement asymmetrical lowering of interest rate measures, properly lower the industry's interest rate, and focus on clearing and standardizing bank charges, and greatly reduce the excessively high costs of enterprises.
(IV) Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry in accordance with the requirements and deployment of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†and the Outline of the Textile Restructuring Program, build systems and mechanisms that are suitable for the further development of the textile industry, and strive to increase the added value of the industry and enhance the industry International Competitiveness. Encourage textile companies to implement technological transformation and technological innovation, set an example for the industry, and create an external environment conducive to further promoting the transformation and upgrading of textile enterprises.
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