India’s cotton ban is questioned, cotton price shocks are weak in the short-term

First, the international cotton market overview ICE cotton ** fell on Tuesday, analysts said that due to a stronger dollar and weakness in the external market, prompted investors to lock in profits on the previous day's gains, even if India's restrictions on the uncertainty of cotton exports reduce the decline. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) May cotton contract CTK2 fell 0.81 cents to settle at 91.42 cents per pound with intraday trading range of 90.77-94.24 cents.

In the news, the International Cotton Association (ICA) recently expressed its disappointment at the decision of the Indian government to unilaterally ban cotton exports. India is the second largest cotton producer and consumer in the world. It ranks among the top cotton exporters and holds nearly 20% of the world market share. Accordingly, ICA believes that this move by India will have serious and negative effects on the world cotton trade. The Indian ministerial group will revisit Friday the ban on cotton exports announced on Monday after the country’s agriculture minister expressed opposition to the export ban, saying that it would damage the interests of farmers. This is the second time that the Indian Ministry of Trade has banned cotton exports in the past two years, saying that the low inventory will bring upward pressure on domestic cotton prices. Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said on Tuesday that he has asked for a lifting of the ban because domestic cotton prices have fallen.

Second, the domestic spot market Overview March 7th, the national cotton trading market, merchandise cotton electronic trading transactions 14,380 tons, unchanged from the previous day, orders increased by 40 tons, a cumulative order 108060 tons. On March 7, China's cotton price index rose by 3 yuan to 19,600 yuan/ton. Last week, when the 2012 New Deal was introduced, cotton traders, ginners, and cotton farmers all supported this and positive views. The views of textile companies are somewhat divided. Some companies believe that Khmer prices mean high yarn prices and cotton prices The upward adjustment will have a stimulating effect on the rise of cotton yarn prices. In addition, according to recent investigations into the cotton business strategy, many cotton traders are currently in a state of anxiety and entanglement. They are also afraid to go short and go long. In view of the increase in new cotton storage and storage prices, the market does not dare look bearish; however, the cotton yarn market still has no improvement, and there are still half a year's time for this year. There is also a high risk of blindly doing more, and the main reason is to wait and see. On March 7, the company plans to collect and store 96,550 tons of crude oil, with an actual turnover of 19,080 tons, and the transaction rate is 20%. As of yesterday, the cumulative transaction volume of cotton in 2011 was 2,672,710 tons, with 1,571,480 tons in Xinjiang and 1,1958,300 tons in the mainland.

On the news side, after the rush in late February, the credit of Daxing Bank shrank rapidly in the fourth quarter of March. Informed sources told this reporter that the four major banks added a negative growth of about 30 billion yuan in the first four days of March, while the four major banks added 5,000 yuan in February to about 260 billion yuan. As of February 29, 2012, the number of instrumental notarization tests nationwide in 2011 was 22,347,000 packs, 5,050,000 tons. The statistical results of the inspection data showed that the average grade of the new system of cotton fine cotton was 3.20, which was an increase of 0.67 over the same period of last year. The average length is 28.29 mm, which is a decrease of 0.42 mm compared with the same period of last year. The Micron A grade ratio is 31.50%, which is 4.98 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.

3. Zhengzhou Cotton ** Morning Trading Tips Zheng Cotton Early Commentary on the 8th: ICE Cotton closed lower on Tuesday, India's cotton ban was questioned by all parties, China's credit supply contracted in March, and China's 2011 cotton quality has improved. Zheng cotton fell sharply yesterday. Affected by India’s cotton ban, the market is worried about India’s cotton policy. Short-term cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in a weak direction. Investors should be wait-and-see, cautiously open positions, and pay attention to risks. (Source: NetEase Author: Green Acacia **)

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