Cycle Power Technology, A-shares, A-shares, warm spring market
Yesterday, the commodity futures market rose in large areas. In the A-share market, funds poured into non-ferrous metals, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to 3100 points. The analysis believes that the quiet cyclical stocks are expected to rebound from April to May, but the focus of the future market is still on the GEM. Next, the market is represented by emerging industries, led by leading stocks, and there are layers and structures. Warm spring market.
Non-ferrous crude oil all floating cycle stocks are expected to rebound
On April 19th, the commodity futures market rose in large areas. At the close, the non-ferrous metal Shanghai nickel rose to more than 3%, Shanghai aluminum followed by more than 3%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 3%. The black line continued to rise and the iron ore rose to a high of 6.5%.
Huaan Futures Analysis said that due to market misreading of LME's removal of nickel products produced by Russia's Norilsk Nickel Company from the delivery list, Lun Nickel soared to a three-year high, rising 7.5% on Wednesday and hitting a six-and-a-half-year maximum. One-day gains. While the US's impact on Russia's aluminum sanctions continues to ferment, Rio Tinto hinted that it may cut its 2018 aluminum production forecast. The price of Lun aluminum hit a seven-year high on Wednesday, and the current price of Lun aluminum has risen by more than 25%.
Under the premise of macro-benefit, the replenishment sentiment of the steel mills was slightly depressed, but in the first quarter, China's imported mines showed seasonal decline, and the port inventory pressure eased slightly. In addition, the new iron ore 09 contract will implement new delivery quality standards, which will better reflect the price of mainstream minerals. At present, Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore is 446 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than the dry ton plus discount. Futures prices, iron ore futures have low demand.
The rise in base metals has supported gold and has attracted many buying opportunities. Gold futures prices closed higher on Wednesday, setting a new closing price in a week, but remained within the tight trading range of the past few trading days. Spot gold was slightly under pressure on Thursday, but it was still supported by risk aversion and technical buying.
Crude oil, yesterday's close, crude oil rose 3.57%, reported 440.6 yuan, the highest reached 444.0 yuan, the second highest since the opening. WTI May crude oil futures closed up 1.95 US dollars or 2.93%, to 68.47 US dollars / barrel, at least the highest since December 2014; June oil closed up 1.90 US dollars or 2.65%, reported 73.48 US dollars.
Industry insiders told the "Investment Express" reporter that due to the weakening of the US dollar and the good performance of China's economic data, basic metals generally rose. In addition, the global economic recovery and inflation are still the main logic of industrial metal price trends this year. For the A-share market, the profitability recovery driven by the fundamentals makes the cyclical stocks get a premium to a certain extent. In general, the quiet cyclical stocks are expected to rebound from April to May.
Economic stability, good corporate profitability
In the first quarter of this year, China's economic operation started well, showing a stable and good trend, and a good new situation. The National Development and Strategy Institute of Renmin University of China released the latest report on April 19th, saying that China’s economy started smoothly in the first quarter and the overall economy is improving this year.
The report pointed out that in the first quarter of this year, China's economic start-up showed six bright spots: real GDP growth rate was relatively stable, and it got rid of the rapid decline period; investment endogenous power increased, policy factors fell; price signal was stable, and the four gaps narrowed; micro foundation Steady, the business situation of SMEs improved; the macro economy continued, the confidence of market players rebounded; the economic structure continued to optimize, and steadily moved towards high-quality development.
However, the report also believes that the economy still has hidden concerns. The short-term macroeconomic trend faces many uncertainties. For example, the overall stability of investment has been stabilized, but the low-level differentiation has not yet been reversed, and the contribution of external demand to economic growth has been turned negative. Based on the current economic situation, the report believes that China's new cycle has not yet begun, and China's expansionary macroeconomic policies have not yet reached the point of full exit. The core of steady growth still lies in stable investment.
In the first quarter of this year, China's economy was stable and the profitability of listed companies was still further improved. Haitong Securities 600837, shares attending study show that as of April 10, 2018 a quarterly disclosure of performance prediction of a total of 1244 companies, board, small board, the GEM disclosure rate was 4.4%, 49.2%, 98.9%. From the perspective of the year-on-year growth rate of net profit in the first quarter, the main board, small and medium-sized board and GEM were 234.1% (low disclosure rate), 49.5% and 34.8%, and the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises maintained high growth.
Shanghai stock index re-invested 3100 points into non-ferrous metals
On April 19th, the stock indexes of the two cities opened higher and higher, and the intraday trading continued to fluctuate. The market recovered and the theme stocks blossomed more. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 3,117.38 points, up 0.84%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10,598.35 points, up 1.02%; the GEM was at 1820.28 points, down 0.11%.
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The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3100 points, and the non-ferrous metal sector led the gains. From the perspective of 28 Shenwan first-class industries, there were 15 industry-specific single net inflows yesterday, among which non-ferrous metals were the largest single net inflows, with a net inflow of 2.232 billion yuan; household appliances, defense military, and bank singular net inflows. The amount was 831 million yuan, 779 million yuan, and 701 million yuan respectively; the net inflows of food and beverage, steel, electrical equipment and mining extra large singles exceeded 300 million yuan.
Looking ahead to the market, Bosera Fund said that in the second quarter, the market paid more attention to the impact and impact of Sino-US trade frictions, China's new round of reform and opening up measures and financial supervision and other policy events on the market. The advanced manufacturing on the supply side and the better life improvement on the demand side are still worthy of persisting in the second quarter. In addition, financial supervision and financial risk reduction, bank brokers with lower valuations can also become a pole of strategic allocation. From the perspective of style, considering the fundamentals and policies of each sector, growth has gained strong relative returns. Although it still dominates, the excess returns in the second quarter may tend to decline.
Wu Guoping, chairman of Rongrong Investment, believes that the rise of technology on Wednesday, the chip's ups and downs, most of Thursday showed a trend of falling back, which is also a key factor to curb the decline of the GEM yesterday, it is normal, after all, all chip stocks will be implemented in the future. To the release of performance, there is still a long time to go, the future policy will certainly be strongly supported, but the specific market has to take a step by step, so the mode of future operation is definitely also carried out by the band. The technology sector is one of the main battlefields in the future. Technology is not just a chip. In the future, there are actually a lot of science and technology fields to be developed in China. The fastest and real breakthroughs in real-world performances may be the fastest outbreak in the market. .
For the GEM index, although it closed green yesterday, it is still the strongest among the main indexes from the K-line. Analysts said that the focus of the future market is still on the GEM, and then the market is led by emerging industries, leading stocks led the rise, there are hierarchical, structural market.
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